On June 23, Brigadier-General Alireza Sabahi Fard, commander of the Iranian Army’s Khatam al-Anibya air defense base, repeated Iran’s desire to help Iraq develop its air defense systems following a meeting with Tariq Abbas Ibrahim Abdul Hussein, the Iraqi army’s deputy commander.
“We are ready to form expert committees in all spheres to pave the way for the launch and promotion of mutual cooperation,” Sabahi Fard said, according to Tasnim, a news agency close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC).
Abdul Hussein reportedly “hailed Iran’s advances in the air defense industry, saying Iraqi military delegations have been acquainted with the Islamic Republic’s great capabilities after a series of visits to Iran”.
These statements came just a day after the US almost launched bombing raids against Iran in retaliation for Tehran’s shooting down of a US Navy surveillance drone over the Gulf of Oman.
However, this was not the first time Iran has offered to help Iraq develop its air defenses.
In April, following a meeting with his Iraqi counterpart, Iran’s armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri expressed a similar interest.
“Since air threats on Iraq and Iran are possible from the direction of the western borders, we decided to launch close cooperation in the field of air defense between the two countries,” Bagheri told a press conference, without specifying the exact threats he had in mind.
Following the June 23 meeting, Iraqi General Abdul Hussein reportedly “expressed his country’s willingness to work with Iranian air defense experts for manufacturing equipment, training, and technical support in various field, such as electronic warfare, radars, visual monitoring, command and control, radar-related calculations, and software systems”.
According to Russian state media, Iraq has shown an interest in buying the Russian-made and highly sophisticated long-range S-400 air defense missile system. Possession of the S-400 would give Baghdad one of the most, if not the most, advanced air defense missile systems in the entire region.
The S-400 is no doubt far more advanced than anything in the current Iranian arsenal. This means, depending on the type and range of the missiles accompanying its S-400 launchers, Iraq could end up fielding an air defense system far more advanced and lethal than anything Iran could offer.
When Iraq previously expressed an interest in purchasing the S-400 early last year, it cited the threat posed by “extremists” who “might use aircraft for attacks” on the country’s Shiite shrines.
The Islamic State (ISIS) did use homemade armed drones during its war with the Iraqi military, and would likely target shrines from the air if it ever attained the capability. A scenario like this is possibly what the Iraqi government has in mind to justify buying such an advanced weapon system.
Iran purchased missiles from Russia for the formidable S-300, the S-400’s predecessor, in 2007, but did not take delivery until 2016.
Tehran claims it shot down the US drone using one of its domestically-produced missile systems. Analysts have warned that Iran’s air defenses could pose a significant challenge to US air superiority in the event of war between the two.
One American analyst also told AFP that if Iran did indeed use a domestically-produced missile to shoot down the drone, it demonstrates a “capability that Iran could replicate and potentially provide to proxy groups throughout the region to threaten us and partner militaries”.
It is unclear whether Iran wants to develop Iraq’s air defense system or supply its proxies with such mobile systems for use against US or allied aircraft in Iraqi airspace in the event of war.
If Baghdad does end up permitting Iranian military advisers to help operate Iranian-made air defense missiles on its soil in the near future, this would certainly raise eyebrows in Washington.
Iraqi possession of Iranian air defense systems could enable it to more effectively enforce a closure of its airspace. Iraq’s fleet of F-16 jet fighter-bombers is currently equipped with relatively short-range AIM-7 and AIM-9 air-to-air missiles.
Iraq’s basic air defenses consists of Russian-made short-to-medium-range SA-22s, antiquated ZU-23-2 Soviet-era anti-aircraft autocannons, along with shoulder-fired short-range SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles.
Ultimately, while Iranian-made Iraqi air defense missiles are – if operated independently by the Iraqi military – unlikely to target US warplanes in the event of a US-Iran war, Tehran is rumored to have supplied its proxies in Iraq with formidable surface-to-surface missiles, Reuters reported last August.
Baghdad categorically denied it, but analysts believe it is possible that Tehran has covertly supplied its proxies with long-range artillery rockets.
A recent analysis from the Washington Institute suggests Iranian “artillery rockets may already have entered Iraq inside empty water or oil tankers, a tactic also used in Yemen”.
“If so, Iran’s playbook suggests that SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles] and/or precision guidance systems could soon follow,” the analysis noted.
Any Iranian deployment of SRBMs in Iraq “would cross a line, mainly because it would bring a wider array of US forces and partners into potential firing range”.
US President Donald Trump courted widespread criticism in Iraq last January when he said he wanted to use the US troop deployment in the country’s western Al-Asad Air Base to “watch” Iran. He did, however, clarify that he did not want to use Iraqi soil to carry out any potential attack on Iran.
Prominent Iraqi officials from various diverging political backgrounds have stressed that war between the US and Iran would have disastrous consequences for their country and should be averted.
Nevertheless, if Iran does ultimately prove capable of fielding air defense and/or ballistic missiles against the US and its allies on Iraqi soil, Iraq could well become a battlefield in any future US-Iran confrontation.
